Private savings at record level after decline in Q1/20
According to most recent information on savings of Polish private households, the respective volume reached PLN 1.65tr at the end of June 2020, which is twice as much as 10 years ago. This corresponds to an increase of almost PLN 100bn compared to Q1/20, when they declined for the first time since 2014 mainly due to weak stock markets following the outbreak of the coronavirus.
Record-low interest rates benefit Polish asset managers and activity on WSE
The savings of Polish households mostly consist of bank deposits & savings accounts, which accounted for PLN 969bn as of 30/06/2020. However, as the Polish central bank lowered the reference rate to a record-low of 0.1% in Q1/20, Poles started withdrawing money from savings accounts and invest it in mutual funds instead. The value of AuM of Polish mutual funds increased by PLN >40bn to PLN 279.7bn (thereof: PLN 31bn in equity & absolute return funds) between January and November 2020. In addition, while in the old pension funds OFE the value of AuM has grown by PLN 15.6bn to PLN 131.7bn since March mostly due to a strong performance of global capital markets, the AuM of the Employee Capital Plans (PPK), which were only created in 2019, already reached PLN 2bn. All together helped to increase the total trading volume on the Warsaw Stock Exchange in Jan-Nov 2020 by 12.1% y-o-y to PLN 5.6tr.
Outlook for the Warsaw Stock Exchange remains positive
Despite a relatively high inflation (October 2020: 3.1%), which is currently the highest in the EU), we believe that the Polish central bank NBP will not increase interest rates soon as it actively supports the government and Polish enterprises in their fight against the COVID-19 pandemic. According to ING, the fiscal program of the Polish government will mostly be financed indirectly through NBP’s QE program (includes purchases of bonds of the Polish government, government bank BGK and the Polish Development Fund on the secondary market), which is expected to reach a volume of 8.5%-10% of Polish GDP in 2020 (in 2019, the Polish GDP equaled USD 565.9bn). In our view, continuously low interest rates will accelerate the shift of savings towards riskier assets such as stocks and should support valuations on the Warsaw Stock Exchange in the coming months.